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Three Charts to Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans. (Chart A)
Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time. (Chart B)

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.
Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.

3. This time, it’s a matter of supply and demand. (Chart C)
The fear of missing out dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. The long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes has been a major driver of the current housing shortfall as can be seen by the chart below. Today, there are not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line: This market is not the same as the run-up to 2006. At Town & Country Realty, we are committed to helping our clients reach their goals, in every market. Call us today at 541-757-1781 in Corvallis and at 541-924-5616 in Albany to have one of our professional brokers answer your real estate questions and help you reach your goals. You will be glad you did!


Source: Keeping Current Matters. Disclaimer: The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Town & Country Realty does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Town & Country Realty will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.